Steelers Bring Rest and the Run Game to Cincinnati as Bengals Fans Make Their Case for SNF

The Pittsburgh Steelers go into Cincinnati on Sunday night with first place in the AFC North at stake. On the Bengals side, Cincy Jungle has made its case for why the home team will even the season series. Its argument also points out where Cincinnati is vulnerable, and Pittsburgh is built to go after those spots.

Both teams are 6-2. Jason Garrison's piece, which was republished on Yahoo Sports, starts with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Garrison wrote that they are the league's best quarterback-receiver trio "and it's not even close." He says the Cincinnati offense that lost 30-27 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 3 has been far sharper over the past month. He also points to a rebuilt defensive line. Cincinnati traded the No. 10 overall pick for Dexter Lawrence and signed Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe. Garrison thinks that depth could wear down Pittsburgh's offensive line late in the game, when Aaron Rodgers needs time to find his tight end.

Garrison's other half reads like a Pittsburgh game plan. He calls the Bengals secondary the weak spot on the roster because the front office never added cornerback depth. He warns that Rodgers, at 42, can pick it apart if he is allowed to extend plays the way he did in September. The bigger concern is Jaylen Warren. Cincy Jungle says Warren is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, the best mark among high-volume backs, and 88 yards per game. It also says he is Pro Football Focus's highest-graded running back. Garrison sees runs to the outside as the way around Lawrence, and long, clock-draining drives as the best way to keep Burrow on the sideline.

The schedule also favors Pittsburgh. The Steelers haven't played since Nov. 1 and come out of their bye relatively healthy. Cincinnati played the Falcons in Madrid on Nov. 8 and then flew back across the Atlantic. The Sunday night kickoff gives the Bengals some extra recovery time.

What it means for Sunday night

Pittsburgh has won four straight since losing 27-24 at Cleveland. In that run it beat Indianapolis 34-22, won 26-19 at Tampa Bay, edged New Orleans 16-10 and handled the Browns 27-6 before the bye. The defense allowed 16 points total in the last two games. The two losses both came on the road, at New England and at Cleveland. That makes this NBC game at Cincinnati a real test of whether the Steelers' form holds up away from home.

The market sides with the home team. The Bengals are favored by 3.5 points across this site's board, which tracks 11 venues. Novig has Cincinnati at -174 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh at +170, and its spread prices are close to even at -100 on the Bengals and -104 on the Steelers. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.2% to 5.3%, so the choice of venue changes the price by a meaningful amount. The total sits at 49.5 at Novig, with the over at +102 and the under at -108. The best over price anywhere is Pinnacle's -111 at 49, half a point lower. At 49 or 49.5, the total is higher than Pittsburgh has needed in a game since early October. That reflects how much respect the market gives Cincinnati's passing game.

If Warren can control the game on the ground the way Cincy Jungle fears, the Steelers can keep the score down and leave Cincinnati with a season sweep and sole possession of the division lead. A week later they visit Philadelphia, where they are already favored at -212 on Novig.