Steelers reach midseason at 6-2, with ESPN's FPI still making Cincinnati the AFC North favorite

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-2 at the halfway mark and have won four straight. Even so, ESPN's numbers say the AFC North still runs through Cincinnati. In ESPN's midseason report, which ranks every team by the Football Power Index, Pittsburgh sits ninth. That comes with an 80.8% chance to make the playoffs but only a 19.7% chance to win the division. The Bengals rank third in FPI, and the model gives them a 79.5% shot at the North.

That gap puts a lot of weight on Sunday's game in Cincinnati. ESPN's Brooke Pryor frames the second half around whether the defense can hold up against contenders. Under first-year coordinator Patrick Graham, the unit has worked through early growing pains and now ranks sixth in EPA per play. It has a top-three run defense and 26 sacks. Pryor lists the Bengals, Texans and Jaguars among the high-powered offenses still on the schedule.

On offense, the Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers reunion has worked through a short passing game. ESPN reports Rodgers is averaging 6.5 air yards per attempt, the second-lowest mark of his career in a season of 16 or more games. The ground game has carried more of the load. Jaylen Warren has averaged 141.5 scrimmage yards over his past six games, according to ESPN's Eric Moody. Moody also found that DK Metcalf has caught three of 15 deep targets. That points to the downfield game still not clicking.

Pittsburgh has already beaten Cincinnati once this season, 30-27 at home in September. Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns that day, according to CBS Sports. The Bengals offense has only improved since then. ESPN has Cincinnati third in points per drive (2.82) and first in third-down conversion rate (53.6%), with Joe Burrow posting a 99.3 QBR on throws of 15 or more air yards.

What it means for Sunday in Cincinnati

The Steelers' season splits into two runs. They started 2-2, losing 20-3 at New England and 27-24 at Cleveland. Since then they have beaten Indianapolis 34-22, Tampa Bay 26-19, New Orleans 16-10 and Cleveland 27-6. Over those last four games they allowed 14.25 points per game. This Sunday's game at Paycor Stadium on NBC is their toughest test of that stretch. It is also the first of two straight road trips, with a visit to Philadelphia set for Nov. 22.

The game board has Cincinnati favored, despite September's result. Across 11 venues, Novig lists the Bengals at -178 and the Steelers at +170 on the moneyline. On the spread, Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 at +102 and Pittsburgh gets 3.5 at -108. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.2% to 5.3%, so the venues are not far apart on who wins. The total is 49.5 at Novig. The best Over anywhere is 49 at -110 on Fanatics, so the venues are within half a point of each other on the total. That number reflects the Bengals offense more than Pittsburgh's recent games, all of which finished at 56 points or fewer.

The following week looks very different. The Steelers are favored at Philadelphia, -212 at Novig and -198 at DraftKings, against an Eagles team ESPN ranks 29th in FPI. For more on the season, see the Steelers team page.