Novig prices
Steelers at Bengals: AFC North lead and a tiebreaker on the line in Sunday night rematch
Both 6-2, the Steelers and Bengals meet Sunday night in Cincinnati, and soft schedules could leave the loser chasing the AFC North lead for the rest of 2026.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are both 6-2 going into Sunday night's game at Paycor Stadium. The winner leaves Week 11 alone in first place in the AFC North. As Adam Bittner of USA TODAY Sports points out, the rest of both schedules looks soft enough that a one-game deficit could be hard to make up.
Pittsburgh already beat Cincinnati 30-27 at Acrisure Stadium on Sept. 27. Another win would give the Steelers the head-to-head tiebreaker on top of the one-game lead. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, according to Steelers Now.
The late-season slate that looked brutal in May has eased. USA TODAY Sports notes that of the six Steelers opponents that made the playoffs last year, only Jacksonville and Denver now have winning records. Philadelphia (2-7), Houston (3-5) and Carolina (3-5) have struggled. Baltimore (4-5) is playing without Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley, and a Jan. 3 trip to 1-7 Tennessee is still ahead. Cincinnati's road is a little harder. It still has two games against the 5-3 Browns and a Dec. 13 home date with the 6-2 Chiefs. Its other remaining opponents include Washington, New Orleans and Indianapolis, all with losing records.
Making the playoffs isn't the main concern for either team. What's at stake is a home playoff game, and that matters most in Pittsburgh. The Steelers haven't won a postseason game since 2016 and are 2-6 in road playoff games since the Super Bowl loss that ended the 2010 season. Since Joe Burrow's rookie year in 2020, the series is split 6-6. Pittsburgh has won three of its last four games in Cincinnati, but the most recent one went the other way: Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-31 Bengals win last October.
What it means for Sunday night
Pittsburgh comes in on a four-game winning streak: 34-22 over the Colts, 26-19 at Tampa Bay, 16-10 over the Saints and 27-6 over the Browns. The defense has allowed 57 points in those four games, about 14 per game. For the season the Steelers have outscored opponents 180-144. They are 5-0 at home but 1-2 on the road, with losses at New England (20-3) and Cleveland (27-24). The Tampa Bay game is their only road win.
That road record helps explain why the Bengals are favored at home. On this site's odds board, which tracks 11 venues, Cincinnati is favored at -170 on Novig and Pittsburgh is +167. On the spread, Novig has the Steelers at +3.5 (-106) and the Bengals at -3.5 (+104). That matches the 3.5-point line USA TODAY Sports cited from BetMGM. Novig's total is 49.5, with the over at even money. The best over price anywhere is Pinnacle's 49 at -111. Venues are close on this game: sportsbook hold runs from 3.2% to 5.3% on the moneyline and from 3.0% to 5.0% on the spread.
The following week, Pittsburgh goes to Philadelphia, and early prices there have the Steelers favored at -212 on Novig and -198 at DraftKings. Before that, though, Sunday night decides which of these two teams leads the division.